Outlook and Commentary

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Outlook and Commentary
Elections in Italy can be notoriously hard to predict, but the most likely outcomes are a new government from the current centre-right coalition or a new PD/centre-right coalition. The markets should absorb either event in stride; even if bond spreads widen, we believe Italy is still a buy as long as the centre holds.
06/02/2018
Outlook and Commentary
A backdrop of stronger US growth forecasts indicates that a recession is unlikely over the next 12 months, says Franck Dixmier. With central-bank liquidity yet to peak, and with long-term rates in Japan and the euro zone at historically low levels, Treasuries remain compelling.
31/01/2018
Outlook and Commentary
The Fed isn’t expected to make major news during its 30-31 January meeting, but Franck Dixmier says this is still an interesting moment. Investors have finally priced in almost three rate hikes in 2018, and we will begin to learn where incoming Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stands on abandoning inflation targeting.
29/01/2018
Outlook and Commentary
Investors seem convinced that euro-zone rates will remain lower for longer than is realistic – which is why the ECB knows it must gradually shift expectations. At its 25 January meeting, we expect the bank to modify its forward guidance in an additional step towards normalization of its monetary policy.
19/01/2018
Outlook and Commentary
Passing a sweeping tax reform bill, Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief. However, can your wallet? Peter Lefkin takes a closer look at how the new bill may shape personal taxes, corporate rates and even the political landscape.
17/01/2018
Outlook and Commentary
Even as the Fed is expected to hike rates in December as part of its policy normalization, a majority of ECB governing members continue supporting the bank’s asset-purchase programme. Shifting central bank dynamics will make the landscape increasingly difficult for investors to navigate.
08/12/2017
Outlook and Commentary
The gradual reversal of expansionary monetary policies – at differing paces globally – will require some investors to adjust their approaches. Protecting purchasing power will remain a priority as official inflation understates real-world costs.
04/12/2017
Outlook and Commentary
China’s latest National Party Congress wasn’t the model of transparency, but the market appreciated the overall sense of political stability and policy continuity – and the clear vote of confidence for the continued leadership of General Secretary Xi Jinping.
20/11/2017
Outlook and Commentary
President Trump has the opportunity to overhaul the Federal Reserve by appointing new Fed governors who align with his administration’s views – namely that the current Fed suffers from regulatory over-reach and is less independent than ever.
17/11/2017
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