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As the date of the UK’s planned exit from the EU approaches, there’s an increased probability the Prime Minister will win support for her Brexit deal. But a “no-deal” scenario cannot be ruled out – and it could have a heavy impact on the UK economy. Here’s what investors need to know to navigate markets.
There’s a strong probability that Prime Minister May will get some version of her Brexit deal through Parliament at the next vote, though she will need to make the “backstop” more palatable to her party
A “no-deal” scenario is still possible, but headlines about the economic disruption from a Brexit crash-out may have further hardened minds against this outcome
If Mrs May gains a parliamentary majority for her withdrawal agreement, we think sterling would be positioned to appreciate, gilts would likely sell off and equities would rally after a brief initial drop
Given that any new agreement would merely set the scene for long negotiations about the future UK-EU relationship, uncertainty will persist; investors must prepare for a wide range of scenarios