Not all the world is in the same point in the business cycle, but some countries are certainly later-stage than others. Investors should assess how their holdings might perform in a downturn and look to actively select high-quality securities. A metric called the “financial cycle” can also provide a helpful way to measure an economy’s fundamental health.
Investing involves risk. There is no guarantee that actively managed investments will outperform the broader market. Infrastructure-related investments involve sector and concentration risk, particularly greater exposure to adverse economic, regulatory, political, legal and liquidity risk.<br />
<p><span class="note-one">The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.<br />
The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from their use. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.</span></p>
<p><span class="note-one">This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is used only as supporting material to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations. This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, distributor registered with FINRA, is affiliated with Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC; Allianz Global Investors GmbH, an investment company in Germany, authorized by the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); Allianz Global Investors (Schweiz) AG, licensed by FINMA (www.finma.ch) for distribution and by OAKBV (Oberaufsichtskommission berufliche Vorsorge) for asset management related to occupational pensions in Switzerland; Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration No. 199907169Z]; Allianz Global Investors Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business Operator), No. 424, Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Investment Trust Association, Japan];and Allianz Global Investors Taiwan Ltd., licensed by Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan.</span></p>
What a US-China trade deal could mean for investors
In a Q&A with Neil Dwane, Christiaan Tuntono says China will likely agree to reduce the trade deficit and support IP protections, but not roll back “Made in China 2025”. Mona Mahajan thinks an announced deal should boost US and Chinese stocks, but the markets have already priced in some of this news.
We think China will fix some trade-malpractice allegations to resolve its trade dispute with the US, but it’s unlikely to curb government subsidies or change its long-term strategy to transform its economy
In anticipation of a trade deal, investors should look at the “winners from trade” investment theme: technology, industrials and energy/materials seem likely to benefit from lower tariffs and enhanced global growth
Globally, we continue to favour a “barbell” approach in equities and fixed income across multiple regions, but we believe it’s critical to take an active approach to help manage risks
In this late-cycle environment, we believe investors should remain active, continue the “hunt for income” across asset classes and focus on ESG factors to seek additional downside protection