Recent Insights

Outlook and Commentary
Given the growing number of risks facing the EU – including slowing growth, rising US protectionism and upheaval in Italy – we expect caution from the ECB. Not only is it unlikely the central bank will detail the exit strategy for its extremely accommodative monetary policy, but QE may even be extended.
Outlook and Commentary
Clear forward guidance from the Fed and a run of strong economic data point to one probable outcome from the FOMC’s June meeting: a rate hike of 0.25%. We don’t believe that any external factors – such as emerging-market volatility or political tensions in Italy – are likely to deter the Fed at this stage.
Outlook and Commentary
The latest US economic data appear to support the Fed’s strategy and match the market’s expectations: no rate rises after the FOMC’s May meeting, but three or four hikes by the end of the year. Longer term, however, the market’s expectations don’t match what the Fed is likely to do, which could create turbulence.
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